So this is -EV poker...?

Before I blog about my domination on Full Tilt I thought this might be a very nice topic to discuss. The JJ vs T8s hand yesterday on Poker After Dark between Jennifer Tilly and Patrik

Some background info:

Antonius is an up and coming European star of poker, having made several WPT final tables and having an EPT title under his belt. He's more know for his very aggressive online cashgame style.

Tilly on the other hand is one of those celebrity players. Former actress who decided to take up poker, winning a WSOP bracelet in 2005.

The following hand has been a topic of discussion and humour on several poker forums. It seems appropriate to discuss this hand and show what make this one so awesome.

First: visit the following link (www.nbcsports.com/poker/feature1.html) and watch Tuesday's second segment starting 2:20 minutes from the end.

BLINDS: 200/400

Seat 1: Phil Gordon (folds Q3o)

Seat 2: Phil Ivey (folds 42o)

Seat 3: Erick Lindgren (folds 52o)

Button: Jennifer Tilly

Small Blind: Patrik Antonius

Big Blind: Jennifer Harman (folds 42s)

Tilly (JJ): Raises to 1200

Antonius (T8s): calls 1000 (calls with this mediocre hand because he believes Tilly's raise is a position raise)

FLOP: Ts - Jh - 7c

(Tilly makes a set/3 of a kind, while Antonius hits his T and has an inside straight draw (needs a 9 to make it))

Antonius checks, Tilly bets 2000, Antonius calls

(Tilly should've put in a pot-sized bet (pot is 2800) which wouldn't give Antonius the odds to call. Now he has about 2.5-to-1 odds which are more than enough to call with a flopped middle pair and a straight draw. Remember, this board ain't safe for a set of Jacks and Tilly should know that. Bigger bet = more info on Antonius' hand)

NB. Notice the heavy breathing by Tilly when the flop hit her.

TURN: Ks

Antonius checks, Tilly checks

(WTF!!! Tilly checks behind Antonius with a set on a very dangerous board!!! Not putting in a bet of about 2/3 of the pot is a crucial mistake. The King is a danger card, giving anyone with a Queen a straight draw as well. Q9 actually would've made a straight now... Not betting here won't give Tilly the information she needs to play the River.)

RIVER: Kc

Antonius checks, Tilly insta-checks and shows the winning Full House

(WTF WTF WTF!!!1111 Did Tilly just check down a Full House on the River!!!??? No valuebet, not even a small suck-in bet?!? What did you say Ms. Tilly? You thought he had pocket Kings? OMFGWTF!!! How the bloody hell did you get that bracelet?!?)

If you don't believe my amazement and disgust are justified, let's take a look at the faces of the other pros at the table, right after the hand:

Antonius:

Harman:

Lindgren:

Ivey:

To summerize this blog post:

February vs March

We're only one week into March and already I'd love to throw my PC to the other end of the room.

I must say that February was an awesome month for me: 2 MTT final tables, 1 MTT win, consistent wins at the 6-handed and full table SNGs and loads of monies won. I don't know what I've done wrong to deserve this but March on the other hand has been a one-way ticket to poker hell. It's difficult to explain and I can post a lot of hand histories to show what has happend, so I thought I'd make it easier for you guys by giving an artistical view of the past week:





Looks "hair-pullingly" disastrous, doesn't it?

Thus I've decided to play at Full Tilt the last couple of days because of the following: FTP have started their WSOP satellites this week. For all kinds of buy-ins, players get a chance to qualify for the biggest poker tournament in the world. Because I - still - haven't made a deposit on FTP I decided to go for the 315 players & 630 players freerolls. Simple system: win one of those and you qualify for the 2nd round; make it to the final 9 in that one and you qualify for the super satellite where the top 2 get a seat at the WSOP. I've played 4 of these yet:

RESULTS FOR 315 PLAYERS FREEROLL: 16th, 16th, 14th
RESULTS FOR 630 PLAYERS FREEROLL: 11th

Hopefully I'll break through in one of these in the following days, getting rid of the sour aftertaste of March's first week.

Finally: if you want to see me at work, then you can sweat me on Sunday March 11th 3PM ET (20.00 GMT) during the SG Forums Freeroll @ Full Tilt Poker. A full report and maybe a recording will follow.